Alt Season Setup Score

June 16, 2026 · leading conditions, scored · data: CoinGecko + DeFiLlama, FRED

Setup score42/100TRANSITION

Bitcoin seasontransitionsetup buildingstrong

Some conditions turning; not yet a setup. 5 of 6 components live (weights renormalize over what's available). This is a conditions meter, not a probability — there have only been ~2 broad alt seasons, so no honest odds exist.

Leading conditions — what the score is made of

Early breadth (30-day)80% of top 50 beating BTCGREEN · 20/20

The famous index asks this over 90 days — by the time it confirms, the move happened. Thirty days is the same question, two months earlier. Full credit at 65%+, zero at 40%.

ETH/BTC turn0.0273 (+0.4% 20d, -13.0% 60d)YELLOW · 8/20

ETH absorbs the first leg of every rotation. Credit for the 20-day and 60-day trends pointing up, bonus above the ~0.05 zone traders treat as the rotation line.

Stablecoin dry powder$314bn, -2.3% in 30 days — BTC is falling, so this is flight-to-safety, not dry powder: scored zeroRED · 0/20

The best-evidenced leading input (stablecoin supply Granger-causes BTC, not vice versa). Full credit at +5%/30d growth — but only in a non-falling market.

BTC dominance (ex-stablecoins)needs persistent run history (provision a KV store to enable)YELLOW · —/15

Headline BTC.D is distorted by stablecoin mints, so this trends BTC / (total minus stablecoins) from the daily run log. Activates after two weeks of readings.

Liquidity tailwind5,897bn, +7bn over 4 weeksYELLOW · 8/15

Liquidity leads BTC by ~1-2 months and BTC leads rotation — the upstream driver. Weighted modestly because the correlation broke for a year in 2025-26.

BTC condition-47.8% from ATH, -16.1% in 30 days — weak tapeRED · 0/10

Every broad rotation started with BTC strong and pausing near highs. Full credit within ~10% of ATH on a flat-to-mild 30-day tape; deep below the highs scores near zero.

Guards — can cap the score at 55, never raise it

Euphoria guard (funding)unavailableunknown

Binance blocks US/cloud IPs. When active, crowded longs cap the score at 55 — euphoria precedes shakeouts, not rotations.

Narrowness guardmedian top-50 coin +11.4% vs BTC (30d)clear

Built from the September 2025 false positive: the index spiked to 78 while the median alt kept losing to BTC, then collapsed to 14. Breadth without a positive median coin = narrow participation; score capped at 55.

Confirmation (lagging, on purpose)

80/100

Altcoin Season Index: the share of the top 50 (ex-stablecoins, ex-wrapped) that beat BTC over the past 30 days. alt-season territory (30-day breadth).

≤35 Bitcoin season75+ alt season

The classic index uses a trailing 90-day window — but a 90-day vs-BTC change isn't available on free data, so this shows the 30-day breadth, which leads the 90-day version anyway. The setup score above should move first — that gap is the point of this tool.

Track record — every fire, scored

No run history yet (provision a KV store to enable). A fire = score 65+ for three consecutive days, scored against whether the index reaches 75 within 90 days.

Read this before acting

The score is graded, not a trigger, because rotation conditions assemble gradually and on/off signals turn every fizzle into a "miss." Read it like the recession score: direction and band, with persistence (65+ for several days) meaning more than any single print.

And the regime may have changed. The 2024-26 cycle broke the playbook: BTC made new all-time highs with no broad rotation, the index's September 2025 spike to 78 collapsed to 14 by December, ETFs keep a structural bid under BTC dominance, and millions of new tokens fragment the capital that used to rotate into the top 50. Expect future "alt seasons" to be narrower and sector-shaped — a high score says conditions align, not that 2021 is coming back.