Stage Two Research
Market Dashboard
The Stage Two Regime Indicator
Updates monthly
73
/ 100
PHASE: SEPARATION
STAGE TWO PROXIMITY
Debt at 1940s levels. Markets trading like the 1970s. No clean precedent in 125 years.
-3 this month
Market Seasons · growth × inflation regime
Live
REFLATION
36% most likely
GROWTH
58
INFLATION
65
POSTURE
MODERATELY PRO-RISK
Market Climate
MIXED
4 bullish
2 neutral
3 caution
● green
favors the market ·
● red
flags risk
UPDATED SEP 11, 5:37 AM UTC
Downside Risk
Bitcoin Crash Risk
30-day · 20% drop
25%
CALMER THAN TYPICAL
›
S&P 500 Correction
3-month · 10% drop
6%
CALMER THAN AVERAGE
›
US Recession Risk
12-month forward
9%
LOW
›
Upside Setups
BTC Composite Bottom
cycle bottom signal
11%
NO SIGNAL
›
Alt Season Setup
rotation conditions
22%
NO SETUP
›
Blue-Chip NFT Setup
floors vs ETH, ~3mo
47%
NEUTRAL
›
Gold Regime
macro, trend & positioning
52%
NO EDGE
›
Tech Sector Setup
QQQ, ~3mo forward
65%
MODEST TAILWIND
›
Global Liquidity
BTC, ~11-week lead
38%
MODEST HEADWIND
›
Subnet Allocation · Top 5
#1
EXTENDED
RedTeam
72
#2
EXTENDED
Pareton
70
#3
NEUTRAL
lium.io
68
#4
STRONG
trav
63
#5
WEAK
Herald
61
STAGE TWO RESEARCH
RESEARCH, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE