June 16, 2026 · BTC at $66,223 (2026-06-15) · -46.9% from ATH · daily closes (Coin Metrics)
The gauges
Trend-14.6% vs 200-day averageYELLOW
Don't fight the tape: sustained downtrends are where cascades live. (This ratio is the Mayer Multiple, as a percentage.)
Volatility22nd percentile (30-day realized, annualized)GREEN
Turbulence clusters. One BTC honesty note: LOW vol here often precedes big moves in EITHER direction — calm is compression, not safety.
Drawdown from all-time high-46.9%RED
BTC's strongest single state variable. Whether being deep below the ATH raises odds (mid-cascade) or lowers them (bottom zone) is settled by the table, not assumed — it depends on trend and vol.
Trend extension23rd percentile stretch above the 200-day averageGREEN
How stretched price is vs its own history — blow-off tops are stretched tops. This is the wire that fires near peaks while everything else still looks healthy (it would have been on at the April and November 2021 highs). Percentile rather than a fixed line, because fixed thresholds like Mayer 2.4 decay — the Oct 2025 top never reached it.
Leverage (perp funding)unavailableYELLOW
Fetch failed (HTTP 451). Binance blocks US/cloud IPs — this gauge is informational only.
Equity stress (VIX)16.2 (40th percentile, -1.6 in 20 days)GREEN
BTC stopped being an island around 2020 — it now sells off with equities in risk-off regimes. Elevated and rising VIX is the macro wire.
Context — shapes how bad a drop gets, not when it starts (not in the odds)
Dollar (broad index)119.5, +0.7% in a monthGREEN
Dollar strength leads BTC weakness by ~a month, but the correlation is weak (~-0.2). Context, never a trigger.
Fed net liquidity5,897bn, +7bn over 4 weeks (adding)GREEN
Balance sheet minus RRP minus Treasury account. Crypto is the most liquidity-sensitive risk asset, but the sample is too short to put this in the math. Context.
Valuation (MVRV)1.24 (22nd percentile, as of 2026-06-15)GREEN
Market value vs realized value — BTC's CAPE. A severity amplifier, not a timer, and decaying: it peaked ~3.5 at the Oct 2025 top vs ~7 in 2021 and ~9-10 in 2017 as ETFs moved coins off-chain. Percentile, never a fixed line.
Sentiment (Fear & Greed)23 (Extreme Fear)GREEN
Far better as a BOTTOM signal (extreme fear precedes recoveries) than a crash predictor — extreme greed is weak and noisy as a top signal. Context only.
How the odds are computed (and the full history table)
Same engine as the S&P version: two questions sort every day since 2010 into a box — above or below the 200-day average, and how choppy lately — refined by distance from the all-time high when there's enough history. The number is how often Bitcoin closed at least 20% below that day's price within the window. (Why 20%? A 10% dip begins within 90 days 50% of the time since 2018 — ambient noise, not a signal.) Three honesty upgrades for Bitcoin's short history: counts are de-overlapped (one crash can't pose as ninety correct calls), every number carries a 95% confidence range, and two eras are shown because Bitcoin's volatility has compressed — old frequencies overstate today's risk. Cells with too few independent starts say "insufficient data" instead of pretending.
90 days
below trend, high vol
2018+: insufficient data (1 starts) · full: insufficient data (1 starts)
below trend, mid vol
2018+: 47% (7/15, CI 25-70%) · full: 50% (10/20, CI 30-70%)
below trend, low vol ← today
2018+: 39% (7/18, CI 20-61%) · full: 43% (12/28, CI 27-61%)
above trend, high vol
2018+: insufficient data (1 starts) · full: insufficient data (3 starts)
above trend, mid vol
2018+: 33% (4/12, CI 14-61%) · full: 32% (8/25, CI 17-52%)
above trend, low vol
2018+: 29% (6/21, CI 14-50%) · full: 31% (12/39, CI 19-46%)
30 days
below trend, high vol
2018+: insufficient data (1 starts) · full: insufficient data (1 starts)
below trend, mid vol
2018+: 15% (4/27, CI 6-32%) · full: 25% (9/36, CI 14-41%)
below trend, low vol ← today
2018+: 20% (9/45, CI 11-34%) · full: 23% (16/69, CI 15-34%)
above trend, high vol
2018+: insufficient data (2 starts) · full: insufficient data (6 starts)
above trend, mid vol
2018+: 23% (5/22, CI 10-43%) · full: 22% (10/46, CI 12-36%)
above trend, low vol
2018+: 7% (4/54, CI 3-18%) · full: 12% (12/104, CI 7-19%)
Read this before acting
This catches regime fragility — downtrends, turbulence, crowded leverage. It cannot see shocks: FTX, the COVID cascade, and exchange or stablecoin breaks arrived as news, and the August 2024 unwind started from a calm tape. Against those, only position sizing and standing hedges protect you — never signals. A low reading means no internal fragility, not no risk.
And the deeper honesty: Bitcoin has had ~4 cycle tops — every "top indicator" fit to them has failed out of sample (Pi Cycle missed Nov 2021 and 2025 entirely; MVRV-Z peaked at ~3.5 in Oct 2025 vs ~7 in 2021). This tool never calls tops. It reports the measured frequency of the current regime with its sample size, and Bitcoin's sample is small — the confidence ranges ARE the product.