Nowcast indicators
Coincident measures. The Sahm rule dominates by design — it has marked every recession since 1970 with essentially no real-time false positives.
Sahm rule+0.10ppGREEN
3-mo avg unemployment 4.30% vs 12-mo low 4.20%. Triggers at +0.50pp, warning at +0.30pp. weight 25
Initial claims219k (+8%)GREEN
4-week average vs 52-week low of 203k. Warning at +10%, red at +20%. weight 15
Payroll growth+188k/moGREEN
3-month average monthly change. Warning below +50k, red below zero. weight 12
Industrial production+1.7% YoYGREEN
Warning below 0%, red below -1%. Can false-positive in manufacturing-only slowdowns. weight 9
Real retail sales+0.7% YoYGREEN
Warning below 0%, red below -2%. weight 7
Indeed job postings-4.7% YoYGREEN
Daily labor-demand proxy. Warning below -10%, red below -20% (loose on purpose — prone to false positives). weight 5
Forward indicators
Leading measures, 6–18 months. The curve gives direction, not timing; credit spreads separate growth scares from real funding stress.
Yield curve (10y-3m)+0.64%YELLOW
re-steepened after inversion (danger window); 12-month low -0.17%. weight 15
Curve probit (12m)15%GREEN
Estrella probit on monthly-avg spread of +0.80%. Historically >30-40% is elevated. weight 10
High-yield credit spread2.66%GREEN
Warning at 4.5%+, red at 6.0%+. Long-run average ~5.4%. weight 8
Building permits-0.2% YoYGREEN
Warning below -5%, red below -15%. Permits lead starts. weight 7
VIX (21-day avg)17.5GREEN
Warning at 25+, red at 35+. Sustained, not single-day, levels. weight 5
Benchmark · Chauvet-Piger model0.4% as of 2026-04-01
Published Markov-switching benchmark. Lags ~3 months; >80% historically confirms recession. Not in the composite.
Score bands: under 15 low · 15–35 moderate · 35–60 elevated · 60+ high. Each indicator scores green 0 / yellow 0.5 / red 1.0, weighted and normalized per bucket. Thresholds and weights are judgment calls.