BTC COMPOSITE BOTTOM INDICATOR

● LIVE · $68,589
Updated Mar 10, 2026

10 adaptive indicators · research-validated weights

26%BOTTOM PROBABILITY
LOW
CONFIRMING SIGNALS
1/10
BTC PRICE
$68,589
REALIZED PRICEi
$51,414
200W MAi
$58,586
CONFIRMED HISTORICAL BOTTOMS
2015
Jan Bottom — $152
Signals: 9/9
All 9 applicable indicators confirmed. Stablecoin metric excluded — USDT market cap was negligible in early 2015.
▼ VIEW READINGS
2018
Dec Bottom — $3,122
Signals: 9/10
9 of 10 indicators confirmed. Global M2 liquidity was mildly positive (+0.3% YoY) — the Fed's full tightening impact hadn't hit yet at the exact bottom.
▼ VIEW READINGS
2022
Nov Bottom — $15,476
Signals: 10/10
Full confirmation across all 10 indicators, including stablecoin contraction, SOPR < 1.0, and Realized Price cross.
▼ VIEW READINGS
SIGNAL STRENGTH BY INDICATOR
REAL8%
MVRV30%
HASH8%
NUPL30%
SOPR60%
PUELL50%
200W30%
M210%
CYCLE20%
Real
MVRV
Hash
NUPL
Puell
200W
M2
on-chainw: 16%● LIVE
Realized Price Ratio
1.33
Above Cost Basis
BOTTOM SIGNAL8%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
on-chainw: 13%● LIVE
MVRV Z-Score
0.53
Fair Value
BOTTOM SIGNAL30%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
on-chainw: 11%● LIVE
Hash Ribbons
0.70
Healthy Growth
BOTTOM SIGNAL8%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
on-chainw: 10%● LIVE
NUPL
0.19
Hope
BOTTOM SIGNAL30%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
on-chainw: 8%● LIVE
SOPR
1.00
Break-Even
BOTTOM SIGNAL60%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
on-chainw: 10%● LIVE
Puell Multiple
0.63
Low Revenue
BOTTOM SIGNAL50%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
technicalw: 10%● LIVE
Price vs 200-Week MA
1.17
Near 200WMA
BOTTOM SIGNAL30%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
macrow: 12%● LIVE
Global M2 Liquidity
4.30
Expansion
BOTTOM SIGNAL10%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
cyclew: 7%● LIVE
4-Year Cycle Position
1.50
Late / Extended
BOTTOM SIGNAL20%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
macrow: 3%● LIVE
Stablecoin Supply
-0.40
Stagnant
BOTTOM SIGNAL40%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG