2015
Jan 2015 low · close $176
Backtested: 4/5 lit
Hash ribbons had already recovered (0.80). US M2 (context, not counted) was growing +6.1% a year.
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2018
Dec 2018 low · close $3,185
Backtested: 5/5 lit
The only low with all 5 backtested conditions lit. Price sat right on the 200-week line (1.00). US M2 (context) was growing +3.6% a year.
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2022
Nov 2022 low · close $15,778
Backtested: 4/5 lit
Hash ribbons had recovered (0.84). Stablecoin supply was down only 1% over 70 days, so it wasn't lit. US M2 (context) grew +0.3% and only reached -1% or lower in Jan 2023, after the low.
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2020
Mar 2020 (COVID) · PARTIAL · close $4,959
Backtested: 3/5 lit
The old page omitted this one. A backtest shows it lit 3 of 5 backtested conditions at the low: price crashed below realized price and the 200-week average, and MVRV-Z went negative. Hash ribbons and Puell never completed, because the crash resolved in weeks. So it's a muted partial signal, weaker than the 5/5 of 2018, not the total miss the story assumed. Fast bottoms fire fewer conditions. Shown because omitting it was the dishonest part.
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