BTC COMPOSITE BOTTOM INDICATOR

● LIVE · $78,419
Updated May 2, 2026

10 adaptive indicators · research-validated weights

28%BOTTOM PROBABILITY
LOW
CONFIRMING SIGNALS
1/10
BTC PRICE
$78,419
REALIZED PRICEi
$53,654
200W MAi
$60,443
CONFIRMED HISTORICAL BOTTOMS
2015
Jan Bottom — $152
Signals: 9/9
All 9 applicable indicators confirmed. Stablecoin metric excluded — USDT market cap was negligible in early 2015.
▼ VIEW READINGS
2018
Dec Bottom — $3,122
Signals: 9/10
9 of 10 indicators confirmed. Global M2 liquidity was mildly positive (+0.3% YoY) — the Fed's full tightening impact hadn't hit yet at the exact bottom.
▼ VIEW READINGS
2022
Nov Bottom — $15,476
Signals: 10/10
Full confirmation across all 10 indicators, including stablecoin contraction, SOPR < 1.0, and Realized Price cross.
▼ VIEW READINGS
SIGNAL STRENGTH BY INDICATOR
REAL8%
MVRV30%
HASH82%
NUPL30%
SOPR30%
PUELL25%
200W30%
M210%
CYCLE20%
Real
MVRV
Hash
NUPL
Puell
200W
M2
on-chainw: 16%● LIVE
Realized Price Ratio
1.46
Above Cost Basis
BOTTOM SIGNAL8%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
on-chainw: 13%● LIVE
MVRV Z-Score
0.77
Fair Value
BOTTOM SIGNAL30%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
on-chainw: 11%● LIVE
Hash Ribbons
2.00
Capitulation
BOTTOM SIGNAL82%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
on-chainw: 10%● LIVE
NUPL
0.31
Optimism
BOTTOM SIGNAL30%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
on-chainw: 8%● LIVE
SOPR
1.01
Slight Profit
BOTTOM SIGNAL30%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
on-chainw: 10%● LIVE
Puell Multiple
0.88
Normal
BOTTOM SIGNAL25%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
technicalw: 10%● LIVE
Price vs 200-Week MA
1.30
Near 200WMA
BOTTOM SIGNAL30%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
macrow: 12%● LIVE
Global M2 Liquidity
4.60
Expansion
BOTTOM SIGNAL10%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
cyclew: 7%● LIVE
4-Year Cycle Position
1.50
Late / Extended
BOTTOM SIGNAL20%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
macrow: 3%● LIVE
Stablecoin Supply
3.30
Rapid Inflows
BOTTOM SIGNAL5%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG