← Stage Two Research

BTC COMPOSITE BOTTOM INDICATOR

● LIVE · $77,216
Updated Sep 11, 2026

10 adaptive indicators · research-validated weights

11%SIGNAL STRENGTH
UNLIT
CONFIRMING SIGNALS
1/9
BTC PRICE
$77,216
REALIZED PRICEi
$52,715
200W MAi
$65,092
CONFIRMED HISTORICAL BOTTOMS
These are in-sample fit, not validation. The indicators were chosen because they lit up at these bottoms, so showing that they light up here is circular. The real validation is the false-positive record — see "About this model" above: backtested to 2012, a 2-plus-lit reading was near a bottom ~58% of the time (vs a 40% base), but an all-lit reading only ~24%, and ~44% of high readings were false positives. Weight the three green cards below accordingly — matched events, not proof.
2015
Jan Bottom$152
Signals: 9/9
All 9 applicable indicators confirmed. Stablecoin metric excluded — USDT market cap was negligible in early 2015.
▼ VIEW READINGS
2018
Dec Bottom$3,122
Signals: 9/10
9 of 10 indicators confirmed. Global M2 liquidity was mildly positive (+0.3% YoY) — the Fed's full tightening impact hadn't hit yet at the exact bottom.
▼ VIEW READINGS
2022
Nov Bottom$15,476
Signals: 10/10
Full confirmation across all 10 indicators, including stablecoin contraction, SOPR < 1.0, and Realized Price cross.
▼ VIEW READINGS
2020
Mar (COVID) — PARTIAL$4,900
Signals: 4/6 lit
The old page omitted this one. A backtest (scripts/research_bottom.py) shows it actually lit ~4 of 6 backtestable conditions at the low — price crashed below realized price and the 200-week average — but hash-ribbons and Puell never completed, because the crash resolved in weeks. So it's a MUTED partial signal, weaker than the 6/6 of 2018, not the total miss the story assumed. Fast, velocity-driven bottoms fire fewer conditions. Shown because omitting it was the dishonest part.
SIGNAL STRENGTH BY INDICATOR
REAL8%
MVRV30%
HASH100%
NUPL30%
SOPR30%
PUELL10%
200W30%
M25%
CYCLE20%
STBL15%
on-chain● LIVE
Realized Price Ratio
1.46
Above Cost Basis
BOTTOM SIGNAL8%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
on-chain● LIVE
MVRV Z-Score
0.80
Fair Value
BOTTOM SIGNAL30%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
on-chain● LIVE
Hash Ribbons
3.00
Recovery Signal ✓
BOTTOM SIGNAL100%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
on-chain● LIVE
NUPL
0.35
Optimism
BOTTOM SIGNAL30%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
on-chain● LIVE
SOPR
1.01
Slight Profit
BOTTOM SIGNAL30%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
on-chain● LIVE
Puell Multiple
1.08
High Revenue
BOTTOM SIGNAL10%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
technical● LIVE
Price vs 200-Week MA
1.19
Near 200WMA
BOTTOM SIGNAL30%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
macro● LIVE
Global M2 Liquidity
5.40
Expansion
BOTTOM SIGNAL5%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
cycleCONTEXT · NOT COUNTED● LIVE
4-Year Cycle Position
1.50
Late / Extended
BOTTOM SIGNAL20%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG
macro● LIVE
Stablecoin Supply
0.10
Growing
BOTTOM SIGNAL15%
NO SIGNALEARLYMODERATESTRONG