2015
Jan Bottom — $152
Signals: 9/9
All 9 applicable indicators confirmed. Stablecoin metric excluded — USDT market cap was negligible in early 2015.
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2018
Dec Bottom — $3,122
Signals: 9/10
9 of 10 indicators confirmed. Global M2 liquidity was mildly positive (+0.3% YoY) — the Fed's full tightening impact hadn't hit yet at the exact bottom.
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2022
Nov Bottom — $15,476
Signals: 10/10
Full confirmation across all 10 indicators, including stablecoin contraction, SOPR < 1.0, and Realized Price cross.
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2020
Mar (COVID) — PARTIAL — $4,900
Signals: 4/6 lit
The old page omitted this one. A backtest (scripts/research_bottom.py) shows it actually lit ~4 of 6 backtestable conditions at the low — price crashed below realized price and the 200-week average — but hash-ribbons and Puell never completed, because the crash resolved in weeks. So it's a MUTED partial signal, weaker than the 6/6 of 2018, not the total miss the story assumed. Fast, velocity-driven bottoms fire fewer conditions. Shown because omitting it was the dishonest part.