Crypto
Bitcoin, large and small coins, and the themes we hold in both.
This week's line · Oct 24, 2026
| Asset class | Stage | 3-yr run | Timing | Change | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC ~$80.5K, above 200d $72.9K · flows rising | Normal no sign of excess | +139% 35% below high | Hold +11% vs 200d -40% vs S&P 12m | new | Oct 23 |
| Large-cap crypto · descriptive ETH ~$2.4K, above 200d $2.2K | Recovering rebound after a crash | +34% 51% below high | Hold +11% vs 200d -12% vs BTC 12m | new | n/a |
| Small-cap crypto · descriptive Small-cap index 102.9, above 200d 83.1 | Recovering rebound after a crash | -36% 84% below high | Hold +24% vs 200d -7% vs BTC 12m | new | n/a |
Our themes
One menu of crypto themes, ranked each month by Stage and Timing, read from each theme's large-cap coins (or its small-cap coins when it has no large ones), so a theme reads the same in both columns. Each column holds the 4 strongest themes it can fill; a theme with no coins on a side is skipped there and the next one held. A held theme stays until it drops out of the top 5.
Picked 2026-W43, the monthly rebalance.
| # | Theme | Stage | Timing | Large | Small |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DeFi and exchanges Exchanges and lenders with real fees, now able to pay holders. Large coins CAKE · Small adds, Recovering · Strong fit, 4/4 JUP · Hold, Normal · Strong fit, 4/4 UNI · Small adds, Recovering · Strong fit, 4/4 Small coins RAY · Small adds, Recovering · Strong fit, 4/4 SYRUP · Wait, Normal · Watchlist, 3/4 MET · Small adds, Normal · Falls short, 3/4 | Recovering rebound after a crash | Small adds +41% vs 200d +14% vs BTC 12m | 25% | 25% |
| 2 | AI Open compute, models and agents that pay each other. Crypto's most direct AI bet. Large coins VVV · Small adds, Normal · Falls short, 2/4 RENDER · Hold, Post-peak · Falls short, 1/4 NEAR · Small adds, Recovering · Falls short, 2/4 Small coins GRASS · Small adds, Normal · Falls short, 1/4 AKT · Add, Recovering · Falls short, 2/4 OPEN · Wait, Normal · Falls short, 0/4 | Recovering rebound after a crash | Hold +38% vs 200d -2% vs BTC 12m | 25% | 25% |
| 3 | Tokenization Bonds, funds and credit moving on chain, and the plumbing that carries them. Large coins LINK · Hold, Recovering · Falls short, 2/4 CC · Wait, Normal · Falls short, 2/4 HBAR · Reduce, Post-peak · Falls short, 0/4 Small coins CFG · Wait, Normal · Falls short, 1/4 CARDS · Small adds, Normal · Falls short, 2/4 HASH · Wait, Normal · Falls short, 2/4 | Recovering rebound after a crash | Hold +28% vs 200d -12% vs BTC 12m | 25% | 25% |
| 4 | DePIN Networks of real machines, storage and sensors paid in tokens. Large coins FIL · Hold, Recovering · Falls short, 1/4 Small coins GEOD · Small adds, Stretched · Strong fit, 4/4 HNT · Reduce, Post-peak · Watchlist, 2/4 ANKR · Reduce, Post-peak · Falls short, 2/4 | Recovering rebound after a crash | Hold +20% vs 200d -12% vs BTC 12m | 25% | 25% |
| 5 | Base layers The chains everything else runs on. Fees and staking tie value to use. No small-cap coins in this theme yet. | Recovering rebound after a crash | Hold +10% vs 200d -17% vs BTC 12m | 0% | none |
| 6 | Privacy Money that can't be watched. Demand rises as surveillance does. No small-cap coins in this theme yet. | Late | Small adds +64% vs 200d +198% vs BTC 12m | 0% | none |
Coins under a held theme are its first three in the crypto screener's order (its tier on four business traits, then its rank), the same order as the top coins below; coins it does not rank follow, marked not ranked. Each shows its own Stage and Timing against bitcoin. Green tickers are the screener's Strong fits. Held themes are equal shares of a side. The menu is our judgment, it has not been backtested on coins, and crypto themes have only a few years of history. A screen, not a recommendation. Not advice.
Top large-cap coins in our themes
| # | Coin | Theme | Screener | Coin stage | Coin timing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAKE $676M | DeFi and exchanges | Strong fit, 4/4 | Recovering | Small adds |
| 2 | JUP $921M | DeFi and exchanges | Strong fit, 4/4 | Normal | Hold |
| 3 | UNI $4.4B | DeFi and exchanges | Strong fit, 4/4 | Recovering | Small adds |
| 4 | AERO $567M | DeFi and exchanges | Watchlist, 2/4 | Recovering | Small adds |
| 5 | PUMP $2.0B | DeFi and exchanges | Falls short, 2/4 | Normal | Small adds |
| 6 | AAVE $2.0B | DeFi and exchanges | Falls short, 2/4 | Recovering | Hold |
| 7 | VVV $1.3B | AI | Falls short, 2/4 | Normal | Small adds |
| 8 | LINK $8.8B | Tokenization | Falls short, 2/4 | Recovering | Hold |
| 9 | RENDER $872M | AI | Falls short, 1/4 | Post-peak | Hold |
| 10 | INJ $799M | DeFi and exchanges | Falls short, 1/4 | Recovering | Small adds |
Highlighted: the screener's Strong fits.
How this list is built
The coins in the themes this page holds, in the crypto screener's order: its tier on four business traits, then its rank. Coins it does not rank follow, unranked. Stage and Timing here are each coin's own, measured against bitcoin; the theme's are in Our themes above.
From the screener’s list of 2026-10-27. An ordering, not a forecast. Not a recommendation to buy.
Top small-cap coins in our themes
| # | Coin | Theme | Screener | Coin stage | Coin timing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GEOD $114M | DePIN | Strong fit, 4/4 | Stretched | Small adds |
| 2 | RAY $480M | DeFi and exchanges | Strong fit, 4/4 | Recovering | Small adds |
| 3 | SYRUP $204M | DeFi and exchanges | Watchlist, 3/4 | Normal | Wait |
| 4 | HNT $77M | DePIN | Watchlist, 2/4 | Post-peak | Reduce |
| 5 | MET $177M | DeFi and exchanges | Falls short, 3/4 | Normal | Small adds |
| 6 | EDGE $117M | DeFi and exchanges | Falls short, 1/4 | Normal | Wait |
| 7 | KNC $25M | DeFi and exchanges | Falls short, 2/4 | Normal | Wait |
| 8 | COW $72M | DeFi and exchanges | Falls short, 1/4 | Post-peak | Reduce |
| 9 | SPK $62M | DeFi and exchanges | Falls short, 3/4 | Normal | Wait |
| 10 | LON $23M | DeFi and exchanges | Falls short, 3/4 | Normal | Wait |
Highlighted: the screener's Strong fits.
How this list is built
The coins in the themes this page holds, in the crypto screener's order: its tier on four business traits, then its rank. Coins it does not rank follow, unranked. Stage and Timing here are each coin's own, measured against bitcoin; the theme's are in Our themes above.
From the screener’s list of 2026-10-27. An ordering, not a forecast. Not a recommendation to buy.
Money
Zcash and Monero ranked on four monetary traits (fixed supply cap, issuance under 2% a year, broad access, not already up 2x against bitcoin in a year), ties broken by lower issuance, with bitcoin shown as the benchmark rather than ranked.
| # | Coin | Traits | Supply cap | Issuance a year | 1y vs BTC | Price vs its high | Access | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC benchmark · $1.63T | 4/4 | 21M | 0.8% | 65% | Everywhere, including US spot ETFs (iShares IBIT, Fidelity FBTC) | Digital gold and the benchmark: a fixed 21M supply with halvings to about 2140 | ||
| 1 | ZEC $20.1B | 2/4 | 21M | 4.0% | +559% | 71% | Major US exchanges; Grayscale Zcash Trust (ZCSH) | Optional-privacy money with Bitcoin's 21M cap, after a large 2025-26 run |
| 2 | XMR $10.9B | 1/4 | No cap | 0.8% | +145% | 82% | Delisted by OKX (January 2024), Binance (February 2024) and Kraken in Ireland and Belgium (2024); harder to buy | Default-privacy money: the strongest privacy, and the most regulatory pressure |
Ordered by the crypto screener's monetary traits, bitcoin as the benchmark. An ordering, not a forecast. Not a recommendation to buy any coin.