Gold & silver
How crowded gold is in futures, read as a cap on adding, beside gold's own trend.
Force: Debt · no calls
This week's line · Oct 24, 2026
| Asset class | Stage | 3-yr run | Timing | Change | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold and silver GLD $367, below 200d $414 · gold COT 52nd pct, silver COT 10th pct | Normal no sign of excess | +100% 26% below high | Reduce -11% vs 200d -16% vs S&P 12m | new | Oct 13 |
How to own it
From the metal itself to junior miners, each read on its own prices against gold. The Gold and silver row above says whether to own gold at all; this says which way of owning it is working. Miners and royalty companies move more than the metal, both ways.
| Vehicle | Timing | Stage | Moves with gold | Fee a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold ETFs GLD | Reduce -11% vs 200d | Normal no sign of excess | 1.0x | GLD 0.40% IAU 0.25% GLDM 0.10% |
| Gold trust (PHYS) PHYS | Wait -12% vs 200d | Normal no sign of excess | 1.0x | PHYS 0.39% |
| Silver ETF SLV | Reduce -25% vs 200d +14% vs gold 12m | Post-peak | 1.6x | SLV 0.50% SIVR 0.30% |
| Silver trust (PSLV) PSLV | Reduce -25% vs 200d +11% vs gold 12m | Post-peak | 1.6x | PSLV 0.52% |
| Royalty companies FNV, WPM, RGLD | Reduce -6% vs 200d +26% vs gold 12m | Normal no sign of excess | 1.4x | none (stocks) |
| Major miners (GDX) GDX | Reduce -12% vs 200d +14% vs gold 12m | Stretched big run, more volatile | 1.9x | GDX 0.51% |
| Junior miners (GDXJ) GDXJ | Reduce -17% vs 200d +10% vs gold 12m | Stretched big run, more volatile | 2.0x | GDXJ 0.52% |
| Silver miners (SIL) SIL | Reduce -19% vs 200d +14% vs gold 12m | Stretched big run, more volatile | 1.9x | SIL 0.65% |
| Junior silver miners (SILJ) SILJ | Reduce -23% vs 200d +6% vs gold 12m | Post-peak | 2.0x | SILJ 0.69% |
What each one is, and how it is taxed
Gold ETFs. Physical gold held in a vault. IAU and GLDM hold the same metal at lower fees. Taxed as a collectible, up to 28% on long-term gains.
Gold trust (PHYS). Sprott Physical Gold Trust, allocated bars; can trade a little above or below its metal value. Can qualify for long-term capital gains rates with a QEF election.
Silver ETF. Physical silver held in a vault. SIVR holds the same metal at a lower fee. Taxed as a collectible, up to 28% on long-term gains.
Silver trust (PSLV). Sprott Physical Silver Trust, allocated bars; can trade a little above or below its metal value. Can qualify for long-term capital gains rates with a QEF election.
Royalty companies. Franco-Nevada, Wheaton Precious Metals and Royal Gold, equal weight. They finance mines for a share of output, so no mine costs. Wheaton is about half silver; there is no separate silver royalty line because no group of silver-focused royalty companies exists to measure. Ordinary stocks.
Major miners (GDX). The large gold producers. Their profit moves more than the gold price, both ways. Ordinary fund.
Junior miners (GDXJ). Smaller producers and developers. The most leverage to gold and the deepest falls. Ordinary fund.
Silver miners (SIL). Silver producers. Leverage to silver, which already moves harder than gold. Ordinary fund.
Junior silver miners (SILJ). Smaller silver producers and developers. The most leverage to silver and the deepest falls. Ordinary fund.
General US tax treatment; check with a tax adviser for your own case.
Ounces of silver one ounce of gold buys. Its 10-year median is 81.2, and it sits higher than 23% of that decade. Below the median, silver is not cheap against gold. A high ratio has tended to favour silver, but loosely; it is context here, not a rule.
Prices to 2026-10-24. Fund fees as reported to Yahoo Finance; the Sprott trusts' (PHYS, PSLV) from Sprott's own pages (hover a fee for its date). A guide to the vehicles, not a recommendation to buy any of them.