Trend & commodities
The funds that hold up when stocks and bonds fall together, and the raw materials a world of heavy debt and AI build-outs may need more of. Each is read on its own prices with the same Timing and Stage as the table. A good story that has already run shows up here as Stretched or Post-peak; that is the point of reading them this way.
Trend funds
Managed-futures funds follow trends in futures on stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities, and can bet on falling prices as well as rising ones. They earn their place in long sell-offs like 2022 and often lag for years in between, which is when most people give up on them. Same job, different recipes: which markets each one trades, and whether that includes stocks, explains most of the gap between them.
| Fund | Timing | Stage | 3-yr run | Moves with stocks | 2022 | Fee a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DBi Managed Futures DBMF Copies the big trend-following hedge funds, which trade stock, bond, currency and commodity futures. It made 22% in 2022, lost 9% in 2023, then gained 7% in 2024 and 14% in 2025. | Add +6% vs 200d +7% vs S&P 12m | Normal no sign of excess | +33% 2% below high | 0.2x | +22% | DBMF 0.85% |
| Mount Lucas Trend KMLM Follows trends in commodities, currencies and bonds only, never stocks. It made 24% in 2022, when stocks and bonds fell together, then lost a little in each of 2023, 2024 and 2025 as stocks rallied, which is why its three-year run is flat. | Add +8% vs 200d +8% vs S&P 12m | Normal no sign of excess | +2% 4% below high | -0.1x | +24% | KMLM 0.90% |
| Simplify Managed Futures CTA Mixes trend with other signals, mostly in bonds and commodities, and has tended to move against stocks. It launched in March 2022, so it has no full year of that sell-off on record; its best year so far was 2024, up 24%. | Add +6% vs 200d +4% vs S&P 12m | Normal no sign of excess | +39% 6% below high | -0.3x | n/a | CTA 0.75% |
| WisdomTree Managed Futures WTMF Trend following across all four markets, stocks included, and the oldest of the four. It lost 7% in 2022, the year DBMF and KMLM made more than 20%, then made money in every year since. | Hold +4% vs 200d -1% vs S&P 12m | Normal no sign of excess | +36% 4% below high | 0.3x | -6% | WTMF 0.66% |
What each one is, and how it is taxed
DBi Managed Futures. iMGP DBi Managed Futures. Copies the positions the largest trend-following hedge funds appear to hold, from their reported returns. An ordinary fund (1099). It holds futures through a subsidiary, so gains are often paid out as ordinary income.
Mount Lucas Trend. KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy. A simple, published trend rule on commodity, currency and bond futures, with no stock futures. An ordinary fund (1099). It holds futures through a subsidiary, so gains are often paid out as ordinary income.
Simplify Managed Futures. Simplify Managed Futures. A quantitative trend and carry model across futures, mostly rates and commodities. An ordinary fund (1099). It holds futures through a subsidiary, so gains are often paid out as ordinary income.
WisdomTree Managed Futures. WisdomTree Managed Futures. Trend following across commodities, currencies, rates and stock indexes; the oldest of the four. An ordinary fund (1099). It holds futures through a subsidiary, so gains are often paid out as ordinary income.
General US tax treatment; check with a tax adviser for your own case.
Energy
| Fund | Timing | Stage | 3-yr run | Moves with stocks | 2022 | Roll, 3 yrs | Fee a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uranium (the metal) SRUUF | Wait -6% vs 200d -12% vs S&P 12m | Normal no sign of excess | +4% 26% below high | 0.7x | +6% | SRUUF n/a | |
| Uranium miners URA, URNM | Reduce -29% vs 200d -42% vs S&P 12m | Post-peak | +20% 48% below high | 1.5x | -12% | URA 0.69% URNM 0.75% | |
| Oil (futures) USO | Small adds +39% vs 200d +118% vs S&P 12m | Stretched big run, more volatile | +120% at its high | -0.3x | +29% | +97 pts | USO 0.86% BNO 1.15% |
| Oil companies XLE | Add +19% vs 200d +49% vs S&P 12m | Normal no sign of excess | +74% at its high | 0.2x | +64% | XLE 0.08% | |
| Utilities XLU | Wait -4% vs 200d -18% vs S&P 12m | Normal no sign of excess | +58% 11% below high | 0.2x | +1% | XLU 0.08% | |
| Natural gas UNG | Wait -15% vs 200d -40% vs S&P 12m | Normal no sign of excess | -66% 68% below high | -0.3x | +13% | -54 pts | UNG 1.17% |
What each one is, and how it is taxed
Uranium (the metal). Sprott Physical Uranium Trust. Holds uranium in storage; trades in Toronto as U.UN and in the US over the counter as SRUUF. A small, thin market that swings hard. A Canadian trust; US holders can make a QEF election for capital gains treatment.
Uranium miners. Uranium miners and fuel companies, equal weight; URA also holds some reactor builders. They move harder than the metal, both ways. Ordinary funds (1099).
Oil (futures). Oil futures, US crude (USO) or Brent (BNO). When later contracts cost more than the near one, rolling them each month costs holders money. Partnerships that send a K-1 form, not a 1099.
Oil companies. The large US energy companies. No futures roll, and they pay dividends. An ordinary fund (1099).
Utilities. The large US power companies, regulated and not. AI data centers are their fastest-growing customers. An ordinary fund (1099).
Natural gas. Natural gas futures. Rolling them has cost holders most of the price gains over long stretches; often better owned through gas producers. A partnership that sends a K-1 form, not a 1099.
General US tax treatment; check with a tax adviser for your own case.
Metals
| Fund | Timing | Stage | 3-yr run | Moves with stocks | 2022 | Roll, 3 yrs | Fee a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper CPER | Add +3% vs 200d +10% vs S&P 12m | Normal no sign of excess | +73% 6% below high | 0.7x | -15% | -6 pts | CPER 0.88% |
| Lithium and battery metals LIT | Wait -19% vs 200d -13% vs S&P 12m | Normal no sign of excess | +25% 34% below high | 1.1x | -30% | LIT 0.75% | |
| Rare earths and critical minerals REMX | Reduce -39% vs 200d -42% vs S&P 12m | Post-peak | -9% 53% below high | 1.3x | -31% | REMX 0.53% | |
| Platinum and palladium PPLT, PALL | Reduce -25% vs 200d -35% vs S&P 12m | Post-peak | +5% 48% below high | 0.6x | -4% | PPLT 0.60% PALL 0.60% |
What each one is, and how it is taxed
Copper. Copper futures. The metal the grid and data-centre build-out needs most. A partnership that sends a K-1 form, not a 1099.
Lithium and battery metals. Lithium miners and battery makers. Closer to a tech theme than a commodity. An ordinary fund (1099).
Rare earths and critical minerals. Miners of rare earths and strategic metals (gallium, germanium, antimony and others). China controls much of the supply, so export rules move it more than demand. An ordinary fund (1099).
Platinum and palladium. Physical platinum and palladium in a vault, equal weight. Tied to car catalysts and hopes for hydrogen. Taxed as a collectible, up to 28% on long-term gains.
General US tax treatment; check with a tax adviser for your own case.
Food and land
| Fund | Timing | Stage | 3-yr run | Moves with stocks | 2022 | Roll, 3 yrs | Fee a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture DBA | Hold +2% vs 200d -5% vs S&P 12m | Normal no sign of excess | +43% 5% below high | 0.2x | +3% | DBA 0.85% | |
| Farmland FPI, LAND | Wait -4% vs 200d -9% vs S&P 12m | Normal no sign of excess | -7% 22% below high | 0.5x | -31% | none (stocks) |
What each one is, and how it is taxed
Agriculture. Grains, softs and livestock futures. Moves with weather and food inflation more than with stocks. A partnership that sends a K-1 form, not a 1099.
Farmland. Farmland REITs that own US farms and lease them to growers, equal weight. Land is fixed while food demand grows; small and sensitive to interest rates. REIT dividends are mostly taxed as ordinary income.
General US tax treatment; check with a tax adviser for your own case.