Macro
The numbers that move markets, in plain terms, and what the betting markets price.
Rates
Fed funds ratethe rate the Fed sets · Oct 23, 2026
3.88%About flat (3.88% a month ago)
-0.23 pts in a year
10-year Treasurywhat the government pays to borrow for 10 years · Oct 23, 2026
5.00%Down from 5.11% a month ago
+0.99 pts in a year
30-year Treasurywhat the government pays to borrow for 30 years · Oct 23, 2026
5.33%About flat (5.40% a month ago)
+0.75 pts in a year
30-year mortgageaverage 30-year fixed mortgage rate (Freddie Mac) · Oct 22, 2026 (last known)
7.32%Up from 6.95% a month ago
+1.05 pts in a year
Yield curve10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield; inverted curves have come before most recessions · Oct 23, 2026 (last known)
+0.78 ptsDown from +0.92 pts a month ago
normal: 10-year above 3-month
Jobs
Unemployment rateshare of people looking for work who can't find it · Sep 2026
4.2%Up from 4.1% the month before
a year ago 4.4%
Jobs added last monthchange in payroll jobs (BLS) · Sep 2026
+29KDown from +133K the month before
3-month average +51K
Inflation
Inflation (CPI)consumer prices over the past year · Sep 2026 (last known)
4.0%Up from 3.7% the month before
month before 3.7%
Core inflationconsumer prices without food and energy · Sep 2026 (last known)
2.8%About flat (2.8% the month before)
month before 2.8%
Median inflationCleveland Fed: the middle price change, so no single item can move it · Sep 2026 (last known)
2.6%About flat (2.6% the month before)
month before 2.6%
Growth
Economic growth (GDP)last quarter, after inflation, annual pace · Q2 2026 (last known)
2.2%Down from 2.5% the quarter before
quarter before 2.5%
Growth per personpast year, after inflation and population growth · Q2 2026 (last known)
1.9%Down from 2.3% the quarter before
quarter before 2.3%
This quarter so farAtlanta Fed's running estimate, annual pace · Q3 2026 (last known)
3.5%Up from 2.2% last quarter (Q2 2026)
last quarter 2.2%
Where the economy is heading
5 of 8 pointing the right way, 1 the wrong way, the rest about flat. The recession odds combine several of these into one tested number.
Building permitsbuilders pull permits months before they build and hire · Sep 2026
1.40M a yearAbout flat over 6 months (from 1.36M a year)
New jobless claimsthe first place layoffs show up (4-week average) · Oct 17, 2026
198K a weekImproving over 6 months (from 211K a week)
Orders for business equipmentcompanies stop ordering equipment before they cut jobs · Aug 2026
$87.6B a monthImproving over 6 months (from $79.0B a month)
Factory workweekemployers cut hours before they cut people · Sep 2026
42.0 hoursImproving over 6 months (from 41.5 hours)
Consumer sentimentspending follows how people feel (University of Michigan) · Sep 2026
48.1Worsening over 6 months (from 53.3)
Credit stressextra yield on corporate bonds; lenders pull back before the economy does · Oct 23, 2026
1.47 ptsImproving over 6 months (from 1.70 pts)
Temp-help jobscompanies cut temps first · Sep 2026
2.49MAbout flat over 6 months (from 2.48M)
OECD leading indexthe OECD's leading indicator for the US; above 100 means above trend · Sep 2026
101.0Improving over 6 months (from 100.4)
The government's books
Interest billwhat the federal government paid in interest · fiscal year 2025
$0.97TUp from 18% of revenue the year before
19% of tax revenue, up from 18%
Federal debttotal federal debt against the size of the economy · Q2 2026
121% of GDPUp from 118% a year before
a year ago 118%
Budget deficithow much more the government spent than it took in · fiscal year 2025
5.8% of GDPDown from 6.2% the year before
year before 6.2%
What your money earns after inflation
T-bills after inflationa 3-month Treasury bill's yield minus CPI inflation: what cash earns, really · Sep 2026
-0.1%About flat (0.0% the month before)
3.94% minus 4.0% inflation
10-year after inflationthe 10-year Treasury yield minus today's CPI inflation · Sep 2026
1.0%About flat (1.0% the month before)
4.99% minus 4.0% inflation
TIPS real yieldwhat a 10-year inflation-protected Treasury pays above inflation, locked in · Oct 23, 2026
2.66%About flat (2.76% a month ago)
on top of inflation, for 10 years
Arrows show the latest move; hover or tap one for the comparison, or a name for what it is and when it was measured. Green is good news, red is bad, grey is neither (rates help savers and hurt borrowers). Lines show about the last 12 months. Federal Reserve, BLS, BEA and Treasury data via FRED, updated daily. Last updated 2026-10-27.
Coming up
Tue, Oct 27Housing starts and permitsnew home constructionWed, Oct 28Fed decisioninterest-rate decisionThu, Oct 29GDPeconomic growthThu, Oct 29PCE inflationthe Fed's preferred inflation gauge, with income and spendingThu, Oct 29Jobless claimsnew layoffs, weeklyTue, Nov 3Job openingsopenings, hiring and quits (JOLTS)Fri, Nov 6Jobs reportjobs added and the unemployment rateTue, Nov 10Inflation (CPI)consumer pricesTue, Nov 17Retail saleswhat people are spending
What the markets price
| Fed decision, Oct 28 meeting Kalshi | Fed maintains rate | 96% | +30 pts 28 days |
| Fed decision, Dec 9 meeting Kalshi | Hike 25bps | 75% | +7 pts 28 days |
| CPI YoY in November Kalshi | Above 3.9% | 45% | +14 pts 28 days |
| Recession this year? Kalshi | Yes | 3% | -2 pts 28 days |
| Recession in 2027? Kalshi | Yes | 20% | -1 pts 28 days |
| Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026? Kalshi | Yes | 38% | -1 pts 28 days |
| US recession by end of 2026? Polymarket | Yes | 8% | -1 pts 1 month |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Polymarket | 0 (0 bps) | 96% | +0 pts 1 month |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? Polymarket | Yes | 2% | -1 pts 1 month |
Implied probabilities from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown as data. Not a recommendation on any contract. Retrieved 2026-10-28 17:53 UTC.
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